أنجلوس تايمز - 26/3/2007
إن المجتمعات المحيطة بالعراق
أصبحت أكثر تدخلاً في مصيره,
الأمر الذي يمكن أن يكون مفيداً
advice on Iraq
The nations on Iraq's borders are becoming more involved in its fate --
which can be good for the U.S.
AFTER YEARS of rooting for the United States to fail in Iraq, Iran and Syria
are now afraid of precisely that outcome. There are
signs that Damascus and Tehran, as well as Iraq's four
other neighbors, are no longer willing to leave Iraq to
its fate. They're worried that Iraq is Lebanon redux:
sectarian terrain ripe for a new Middle East proxy war.
On the eastern border stands Iran, whose sweeping influence in southern Iraq
and backing of Shiite militias has made even some
moderate Iraqi Shiites nervous. But Tehran may have
over-reached in Iraq. Saudi Arabia is worried about
Iranian ascendance and the worsening violence in Iraq.
It fears the Bush administration is militarily
overstretched and diplomatically hobbled by its refusal
to engage Tehran. So Saudi Arabia has launched its own
diplomatic offensive to try to counter Shiite power and
protect Iraqi Sunnis. Meanwhile, Turkey is increasingly
fearful that Kurdistan will rise as a de facto
independent state if Iraq descends into chaos. Jordan,
Kuwait and Syria worry about the economic effect of an
Iraqi civil war and an overwhelming stream of Iraqi
refugees. In fact, the neighbors are so worried about
being sucked into an Iraqi abyss that even Iranian and
Syrian officials are now worried about a premature U.S.
troop withdrawal that could leave Iraq in chaos. And
Iraqi officials want neighborly help but not outsider
Baghdad finally got Washington's blessing to invite all six neighbors for
talks on March 10. Although the talks were more symbolic
than substantive, informal discussions among the
neighbors are continuing. This is encouraging. Iran and
Saudi Arabia could have an effect on the Iraqi sectarian
violence by halting the flow of money, arms and
fighters; cracking down on inflammatory speech and
fatwas, and urging their co-religionists in Iraq to
strive for a political settlement.
The United States should encourage joint economic ventures between Iraq and
its neighbors — including Iran and Syria. However much
the Bush administration might dislike those regimes,
prosperity is the best insurance against instability.
Restarting the oil pipeline to Syria, for example, would
give Damascus a stake in Iraq's success and less
motivation to play the spoiler. And all of the neighbors
must be encouraged to invest heavily in the new Iraq. By
some estimates, rebuilding Iraq's oil industry alone may
require $25 billion.
It goes without saying that what all of Iraq's neighbors want most is an
Israeli-Palestinian settlement. What all fear most is a
U.S. war with Iran. It would be nice to divorce Iraq's
woes from those broader conflicts, but the reality of
the Middle East is that progress on all of these issues
is fiendishly interlinked. Still, the need to keep Iraq
from going over the precipice should motivate the U.S.
and Iraq's neighbors to strive harder for peace.
لهذه المقالات لا يعني أنها
تعبر عن وجهة نظر المركز كلياً
من حق الزائر الكريم أن ينقل وأن ينشر كل ما يعجبه من موقعنا . معزواً إلينا ، أو غير معزو .ـ