هل ستشعل المحكمة الدولية الصراع القادم في لبنان ؟

بقلم: أندرو لي باترز

مجلة التايم الأمريكية - 11/5/2007

إن الولايات المتحدة ستعرض الاستقرار و الأمن الذي تسعى الى فرضه في لبنان الى مزيد من المخاطر

Will A UN Tribunal in Lebanon Start the Next Conflict?

Posted by Andrew Lee Butters

Since arriving in Israel, I've started feeling a lot more optimistic about the chances of avoiding another war this summer. For one thing, the Winograd Commission's scathing report on Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert's handling of last summer's war in Lebanon decreases the chance that Israel will take another shot at Hizballah anytime soon. The fact that the US is once again talking to Syria is another good sign. And I just got finished Skypeing a friend in Teheran -- normal phone calls between Israel and Iran are verboten --who explainined that the recent crackdown in the Islamic Republic may actually be a sign that hard-liners are consolidating power in order begin a limited conversation with the US. That may sound a little counter-intuitive, but -- fingers crossed -- I've gone ahead and made my vacation plans.

Not that the region is in the clear. Among the many sources of instability that could push the Middle East towards more conflict, one that I'm paying attention to is the status of a United Nations tribunal for Lebanon . This might seem like minor league material compared to the millions of refugees streaming out of Iraq, but the push to set up an international court to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, is putting the United States and Syria on a confrontation course that in a worst case scenario could break Lebanon apart. And the last thing the Middle East needs right now is another black hole where a country used to be.

The Lebanese government, led by prime minister Fouad Siniora, accuses Syria of killing Hariri and a string of other anti-Syrian politicians in Lebanon . Although demonstrations after Hariri's death -- the so-called Cedar Revolution -- forced Syria out of Lebanon after 15 years of occupation, Siniora and his allies see the tribunal as a way of making sure that Syria never comes back. As far as the US is concerned, the tribunal is a handy tool for isolating Damascus -- which Washington accuses of a number of sins including supporting Hizballah, Hamas, and insurgents killing Americans in Iraq . And supposedly Lebanon occupies a special place in the White House imagination -- the Cedar Revolution was one of the few successes of the President's "Freedom Agenda" in the Middle East . (Though that didn't stop George Bush from encouraging Israel to bomb the bejesus out of Lebanon last summer.)

But Hizballah and its allies in Lebanon 's Syrian-supported opposition have effectively prevented the country's parliament from passing legislation for the tribunal. Hizballah gets its guns from Syria and has no interest in seeing its patron on trial. For Hizballah, the tribunal is just one more effort by America and its collaborators in Lebanon to weaken the anti-Zionist Resistance and pave the way for American dominance in the Middle East .

The problem now is that the US is threatening to get the UN Security Council to set up the tribunal by force if the Syrian-backed opposition doesn't stop blocking it. This is almost certainly a bad idea.

Syria has already said it won't cooperate with the tribunal, though this is unsurprising. The regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad would never allow its senior members to be dragged into court. So what could they do? Well, Syrian intelligence might try to start a small-scale civil war in Lebanon to de-rail the tribunal. A bombing here, a sectarian riot there. Pretty soon, Syria could be back in Lebanon to "protect" the country from itself.

Hizballah officials have long said they don't want another civil war in Lebanon , and when aggressive opposition protests spiraled into street violence earlier this year, they immediately stopped escalating their tactics. But if the UN imposes a tribunal, Hizballah could take off its gloves. The Shia militia is already feeling trapped by the 15,000 UN soldiers in southern Lebanon that are monitoring the cease-fire with Israel . The more Hizballah is cornered, the more dangerous it becomes. Remember, besides the ineffectual Lebanese army, they are the only group in Lebanon with serious weapons. And if they could face down the Israeli army, just think of what they'll do to the UN. The history of foreign armies in Lebanon is not a happy one.

Could America prevent Syria and Hizballah from wreaking such havoc? Probably not. The US is thousands of miles away from Lebanon , but Syria is right next door. Meanwhile, we don't even have enough soldiers to protect Iraqis, let alone Lebanese. That's why the idea of a UN tribunal is so appealing -- it's regime change on the cheap. But by setting one up by fiat without the will or resources to back it up, the US would be endangering the very thing that it is supposedly trying to save -- Lebanon 's independence and stability.

http://time-blog.com/middle_east/

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نشرنا لهذه المقالات لا يعني أنها تعبر عن وجهة نظر المركز كلياً أو جزئياً

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من حق الزائر الكريم أن ينقل وأن ينشر كل ما يعجبه من موقعنا . معزواً إلينا ، أو غير معزو .ـ